Strategic defaults or walkaways can now be spotted!?!

Fair Isaac, developer of the ubiquitous FICO score, has a new warning for homeowners plotting a strategic default or walkaway: We can now spot you in advance. We've developed a black-box risk-identification tool that enables lenders and mortgage servicers to tag you months in advance -- and then pursue their own strategic measures to intervene.

The tool is so effective, according to FICO, that it can "capture nearly 67 percent of strategic defaulters" who are otherwise unremarkable and undetectable, paying their mortgages on time.

Sound a little spooky? Not for the major lenders who are working with FICO to install the new statistical risk-scoring model, aimed at some of the costliest and most perplexing defaulters in the marketplace: people who just stop paying on their loan abruptly, without ever previously being late, even though they have the income to pay.

Strategic walkaways are a multibillion-dollar headache to banks and investors. A study by researchers at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business found that during last September alone, 35 percent of mortgage defaults in the U.S. were strategic -- up sharply from 26 percent in March 2009.

With an estimated 23 percent of all residential mortgages underwater as of March of this year, according to data from consulting firm CoreLogic, spotting -- and dealing with -- walkaways has become a high priority for the biggest banks.

Walkaways are also more than a slight concern to default risk-scoring giants like Fair Isaac and Vantage Score LLC, the joint venture created by the three national credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and Trans Union.

Both companies have been stunned to find that the very consumers they deemed the least likely to go into default -- people with 800-plus FICOs and 900-plus Vantage scores -- are statistically more likely to default strategically, with no outward signs of impending payment stoppages, than the lower-scoring masses.

People with low FICO scores still default more often than high scorers, but when high scorers do default, they are far more likely to do so out of the blue. In the lowest score category (300 to 499) more than twice as many people default nonstrategically -- they begin missing payments over time, typically because of income declines -- than strategically.

These walkaways are especially vexing to score-modeling experts like Andrew Jennings, Fair Isaac's chief analytic officer and head of FICO Labs. "They open up new credit accounts" before stopping their mortgage payments, he told me in an interview last week. "They prepare."

They intentionally default on their mortgages in part "because they believe it is in their best financial interest, and because they believe the consequences will be minimal," Jennings said.

Jennings supervised Fair Isaac's work in developing a special tool that pinpoints likely strategic defaulters while they're still cocooning and haven't yet revealed their intentions to lenders.

Some of the research involved examining massive samples of credit bureau data -- 5 percent of all U.S. mortgage accounts -- during a recent one-year period, looking for telltale clues, month by month, that would separate out strategic defaulters from ordinary defaulters.

What the project turned up, said Jennings, helped formulate the model that FICO has now created for lenders and servicers.

So what's in the black box? Obviously the complex statistical model and exactly how it works is proprietary. But Jennings said it looks at a composite of separate risk factors from credit and real estate databases, and enables servicers to identify borrowers whose profiles match those of strategic defaulters most closely.

Some of the key characteristics include:

--How long have the borrowers owned the house? The shorter the time span, the higher the risk.

--Are they good to excellent managers of their household finances and credit relationships? Do they make modest and responsible use of credit cards and other revolving debt? Do they pay their accounts on time as a rule? Do they rarely, if ever, go over the limits on their cards -- or even come close?

--Have they departed from their past credit usage patterns in recent months by opening up multiple new accounts?

--Based on local property-value indexes, is it likely that they have slipped into negative equity territory? Remember: How deeply underwater is only a moderately predictive factor. Lots of owners whose properties are worth far less than their mortgage balances do not strategically default, but keep plugging away paying every month, while borrowers who fit the FICO strategic defaulter profile may be only slightly underwater but still walk away abruptly.

By the way, location is not a key factor in the equation. FICO found that 40 percent of all strategic defaulters live in "recourse" states where lenders can -- and do -- pursue defaulters for any un-recovered debts following a foreclosure.

Of course, the model cannot peer into would-be walkaways' minds and motivations. "We're not trying to explain their psyches," Jennings said, "but you see the patterns" and certain borrowers' profiles light up like flashing neon signs.

The top bracket of high-risk homeowners identified by FICO's new model are 110 times more likely to strategically default than other borrowers -- even though they otherwise appear to be solid customers, according to Fair Isaac.

Armed with these risk profiles, what are banks and servicers likely to do as they scan their portfolios? Fair Isaac recommends that they intervene early with what it calls "pre-delinquent treatments."

These include contacting high-risk borrowers to warn them about the consequences of strategic defaults: Their credit scores will tank by 150 points or more, they'll be hampered or penalized in applications for rentals, employment, car loans or leases, and they can forget about buying another home for at least several years, possibly as long as seven.

If they live in a state that allows deficiency recoveries, servicers will probably emphasize their determination to do so in the event of any default.

Will all this work? Major banks and FICO think it should help. The jury is out at the moment, but if the early detection concept is valid, who knows?

Maybe it will cause some homeowners to think twice and discourage them from taking that first, crucial step: Secretly plotting their walkaway, months in advance.

Ken Harney

As More Homeowners Walk Away, Experts Fear for Nation's Morals

Americans have taken a sharp slap in the face from the housing crisis, financial crisis and jobs crisis. Now, some wonder if the residue of those harsh realities is an ethical crisis.

For the first time in the nation's history, bankers say, people are walking away from mortgages they can otherwise afford to pay. The phenomenon known as strategic default was once unthinkable. It represents a calculated decision to hand over the keys to a home without making good on a loan, reasoning that it makes no sense to keep paying the monthly mortgage when the home is worth thousands of dollars less than the obligation.

Jeff Horton, a 33-year-old Orlando, Fla., technology manager, is among those who recently decided to take the step. He told his lender that he's done making payments on the condo he bought in 2005 and the home he bought in 2007, because he wants to move from Florida and can't sell or rent the properties at a price nearly high enough to cover his payments.

"Life is too short," said Horton, who has mortgages totaling about $400,000 with Bank of America — about twice as much as he thinks he would get if he could sell the property. He says he has little choice because the bank has refused to refinance the mortgages or adjust original terms.

Strategic default is a symptom of a housing market that suddenly turned from "American Dream" to financial trap. With the Norman Rockwell-like images of homeownership decimated by a 30 percent plunge in prices, some fear America is also losing its grip on another idyllic notion: that people will live by the slogan, "My word is my bond."

Morgan Stanley recently estimated that about 18 percent of defaults will be strategic. In a recent Pew Research Center survey, 36 percent of Americans said that walking away without paying a mortgage is acceptable, at least under certain circumstances. Fifty-nine percent said the practice is unacceptable.

The saying "My word is my bond" was first posted in the London Stock Exchange in the late 1920s to convey living up to promises. Now, after the worst financial disaster since that period, people such as Horton say they have no such image of Wall Street or large banks as trustworthy institutions, and that has allayed guilt about walking away from mortgages.

"I felt guilty at first," said Horton. "It all stopped when I saw them take $90 million in executive bonuses. They take bailout money and do nothing for the little guy. They wouldn't do anything for me."

Most people walking away from homes see little choice, says John Maddux, chief executive of UWalkAway, a Web site that provides advice on the strategic-default process. "They bought the house thinking of it as an investment in their future," he said. "For some, it was to be their retirement; for others, it was seen as forced savings, and now it's bleeding them dry."

Overburdened with mortgages, people conclude they won't be able to send their children to college, save anything for retirement or move to a place where they can find a job. But as they go through the soul-searching and guilt connected with walking away, Maddux noted they often point to a sense of betrayal.

He said he frequently hears: "I don't feel bad for the banks. They let this happen. Banks made the mistake of giving a loan to anyone if they had a pulse. Their loose lending standard led to a bubble, and the regulators should have controlled this."

Banking expert E. Philip Davis sympathizes with that point of view, but he also points out the implication of homeowners walking away from a commitment.

"It makes them as bad as the bankers," said Davis, a Baptist minister in the United Kingdom who teaches courses on fostering stability in the financial system.

The erosion of the ethic of keeping promises "will be a cancer for society," said Davis, who was with the Bank of England and is now a fellow at the U.K.'s National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

On the surface, one consequence is evident: If bankers don't trust that people will pay off their loans, banks will demand higher interest and other assurances before lending in the future.

In fact, there's research behind the concern, says Tom Donaldson, a University of Pennsylvania Wharton business ethics professor. And it shows that both bankers and borrowers are at risk if trust erodes.

"We've known for decades that trust is critical to successful business," said Donaldson. "Studies have shown that if one party cheats on one end, the other party feels more entitled to cheat. It's not the most noble way, but it is human nature, and it becomes a race to the bottom."

Research into strategic default by University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor Luigi Zingales shows what he calls "the contagion effect." "The stigma goes down once you see someone else do it," he said.

Donaldson adds, "I hope bankers are thinking about restoring trust. It's enormously in their interest."

Jim Wallis, the author of "Rediscovering Values: On Wall Street, Main Street and Your Street," is discouraged. He had hoped that the financial crisis would lead individuals and business leaders to seek what he calls "a moral recovery," and deal with issues such as "enough is enough" and "we're in it together."

But while he saw interest from businesses at the Davos World Economic Forum after the financial meltdown in 2008, he said the focus has shifted. Now he sees a lot of "anger and yelling" by individuals, and occasionally business people approach him to "voice frustration and yearning. There is no champion for a values discussion."

While Wallis tries to get individuals to question whether individual debt levels were a moral breach leading up to the financial crisis, others say people now have an ethical duty to their families to walk away from debts if paying mortgages would hurt their financial stability.

Brent White, a University of Arizona law professor, argued in a recent paper that people have a moral obligation to their families to move on from mortgages that will overburden them. He said mortgages are legal contracts written with the understanding that they might be breached.

Those agreements stipulate what will occur if a borrower does not make payments as required. The borrower must turn the collateral, or home, back to the bank, and when that is done the contract is fulfilled.

Historically, taking back homes was a satisfactory remedy for banks. But that is no longer true, because both individuals and banks find themselves in the abyss of the housing crisis. Some homeowners can't afford their mortgages, while banks are struggling to manage the record number of foreclosures.

(c) 2010, Chicago Tribune.

13 Unique Ways to Sell a Home

In today’s market, it takes more than painting and trimming the bushes to get noticed, to stand out, to make your home memorable. While home sellers across the country are resorting to dropping the price in order to make their home more attractive, it leads to one crucial question: what can I do differently to make my home stand out?

Larry Nusbaum, Resolution Assistance Contractor for the FDIC, offers the following tips for home sellers looking to differentiate their homes from the numerous homes that are on the market today. 

1. Get lighted signage that’s illuminated even after dark. This will give prospective buyers extra time to see your home as they don’t have to depend on sunlight. 

2. If you or your agent are hosting an open house, be sure to serve light snacks and hand out something that attendees will remember. You want something that will be a positive reminder of your home—seasonal gifts are the perfect way to stay top of mind. Be sure to at least have pens and key chains with your agent's name and contact information on them.

3. Create an informational flyer with all the local conveniences you can find: shopping, schools, universities, hospitals, malls, restaurants, gas stations and attractions in the area, in addition to local police and fire stations, even school bus pick up locations. Assume your open house attendees don’t know the neighborhood.

4. Hand out information pertaining to your home as well as information on the other listed properties in the area showing that your house is the best value.

5. Do some staging to make sure your home looks its best. 

6. Be sure to offer incentives. Some examples include a Lowe's gift card, paying for a year’s worth of yard care or a free session with a landscape architect, offering a $1,000 landscape allowance, paying for a years worth of homeowners fees, offering $1,000 for new appliances or any home improvement, offering a new carpet allowance or paying for lawn service for a year—the possibilities are endless. 

7. Paint the garage floor (concrete paint). Making the garage look fresh and clean will make the whole house feel newer.

8. Send letters to all the neighbors inviting them to “pick their neighbor,”and be sure to include information about your home and the open house. Give them an incentive to talk about your home with other individuals in their sphere of influence. (i.e. a $200 gift card if they find your buyer).

9. Put up signs in your front yard and be sure to hang up as many directional signs as the neighborhood allows.

10. Put out flyers in surrounding shopping areas.

11. Have your agent create a video of your home and put the virtual tour on the Web.

12. Have your agent post ads on Craigslist and on any other free online listing sites you can find.

13. E-mail HR departments at local companies as many employees prefer to live close to their jobs but don’t make time for the house hunting process. This will make it easy for employees to find your home. 


RISMEDIA

5 Great Tips to Close the Deal

In a tough real estate market where competition for buyers is high, sometimes the seller has to ‘sweeten the pot’ to get the deal done. Here are five creative ideas from Realtor Vicki Walker to help close the deal.

1. Offer a Decorating Allowance There may be a buyer that likes your home but just has different decorating tastes. To seal the deal, offer a decorating allowance (for painting, new carpets or wallpaper). You can offer cash at closing, or put money in escrow to reimburse decorating and remodeling expenses made within 90 days of closing, up to a maximum amount. 

2. Do a Pre-Sale Inspection 
This actually works for both the seller and the buyer. By having a whole house inspection done before listing the house, you get a chance to address any issues before prospects see the home. That means you increase the homes saleability. Display the report during open houses and highlight the repairs that have already been addressed. It's like seeing the repair history when you buy a used car; it makes you feel better about making an offer because you know the car is in good shape and exactly what has been repaired in the past. By having the home inspected before listing it, people don't have to guess what kind of condition it is in, they can see it in writing. 

3. Offer a Home Warranty 
A home warranty reassures the buyer that the property is in top condition and gives them comfort knowing that certain future repairs will be covered by insurance. Buyers fear that as soon as they buy the house the dishwasher, dryer, or stove will go on the fritz. A home warranty is an inexpensive way to offer peace of mind to the buyer. 

4. Cover Closing Costs 
Sometimes it takes a little nudge to close the deal. You can offer to pay the buyers half of title and escrow fees, or pre-paid interest charges. Paying the points on the loan may also be a tax deduction for you. Many lenders may limit how much of the closing costs you can pay, but if the buyer is short of cash, offering to pay some closing costs can make a difference. 

5. Offer Seller Financing 
There are many ways to offer seller financing. Options include putting funds in escrow to cover several months of mortgage payments, buying down the mortgage rate, or carrying a second mortgage to cover the down payment. It is wise not to offer seller financing unless you have consulted a real estate attorney and your real estate agent. Make sure that the buyer has good credit. Although this is the least attractive option to the seller to get a deal closed, sometimes it takes creativity and going the extra mile to get your home sold. 
By Paige Tepping ~ RISMEDIA

Renting Your Home in 5 Easy Steps

A homeowner who is able to sell a property at the asking price has the potential to reap a profit, but what happens when you are having trouble getting your home sold? In today’s difficult market, many homeowners are taking advantage of renting out their homes, or individual rooms, in order to cover the bills. 

According to Glenn Curtis, freelance financial writer and analyst, here are five easy steps that will help make the renting process easier and more profitable. 

Study the market: Check local newspapers and with local Realtors to see what comparable homes/properties are renting for in the neighborhood. This should help you establish a fair rental price.

Prep the home: Renters may not take care of the home or its furnishings; therefore, the owner might consider removing breakables and personal items in order to avoid damage and potential arguments.

Find a renter: Consider advertising in local newspapers, in the brochures and bulletins found in supermarkets and on website classifieds. The idea is to try to get as many people to view the rental details as possible, so that you are left choosing your renter, rather than having to go with the only renter who expresses interest in your place.

Interview: Consider meeting with the potential renter rather than simply dealing over the phone. Knowing who will inhabit your home may put your mind at ease and help you weed out unsuitable candidates.

Spell out the deal: You should consider contacting an attorney (particularly one that specializes in real estate) to help see you through the rental transaction. The lawyer should be able to provide or help draft a rental agreement/contract. Consider any stipulations you want in the paperwork (like late fees, lease terms, payment due dates, etc.) and make sure the attorney includes those items.


By Paige Tepping

Rules Released on Military Home Owners Relief

Military personnel who bought their primary home before July 1, 2006, and were ordered at least 50 miles away on permanent reassignment between Feb. 1, 2006, and Sept. 30, 2012, and sell at a loss are eligible for assistance under rules just released by the federal government. The assistance was authorized under the economic stimulus act passed earlier this year. For more info contact Megan Booth, mbooth@realtors.org, 202/383-1222.

Rate of Homeownership in U.S. Among Asians Decline

According to 2008 American Community Survey (ACS) of the U.S. Census, there are nearly 13 million Asians living in the U.S., largely concentrated in west and east coast states, along with Illinois. This ethnic group historically tends to earn more than other minority groups and have less debt. Therefore it was surprising to learn in a recent census report that Asians suffered the sharpest drop in homeownership last year, eclipsing declines by whites, blacks and Hispanics. One explanation may be that one in three Asians lives in California which has seen foreclosure rates skyrocket and home values plummet. According to ACS, the U.S. homeownership rate fell to 66.6% in 2008, the lowest in six years, while the rate of homeownership for Asians fell to 59.4%. This drop in homeownership is a reversal after the housing boom years when minorities in the U.S. took advantage of easy access to financing to purchase homes. The Population Reference Bureau warns the news could worsen once 2009 data is available. Access NAR's state-by-state reports on international activity or view census information by community and ethnicity.

US working on plan to help homeowners refinance

AP - The federal government is working on a loan-guarantee plan that could help many homeowners escape foreclosure, a banking regulator told Congress Thursday. At the same time former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis will get worse before it gets better... click for more.

$700 Billion for What?

Click here for the reality behind the government’s proposed “investment” in the financial markets and what’s at stake for homeowners and taxpayers.