November home sales soar 7.4 percent

Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Buyers were racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers that was scheduled to expire Nov. 30. Last month, Congress decided to extend and expand the credit to ensure the housing market could sustain its recovery.

"Things are stabilizing," said Pete Flint, chief executive of real estate Web site Trulia.com. "There is a significant amount of buyer interest out there."

About 2 million homebuyers have taken advantage of the credit so far, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The group forecasts that another 2.4 million will use it by the middle of next year. First-time buyers made up about half of all transactions last month, driving sales up 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump.

"In the short run, its an effective stimulus," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. "If you give someone money to spend on something, they will spend it."

November's sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October, the Realtors group said. It was the highest level since February 2007. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Sales are now up 46 percent from the bottom in January, but down 10 percent from the peak more than four years ago. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 1 percent to 3.5 million. That's a healthy 6.5 month supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level in three years.

The median sales price was $172,600, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.2 percent from October.

The housing market recovery, however, is still facing strong headwinds.

Unemployment is high and employers are going to be slow to rehire because economic growth is weaker than expected. The economy grew at a pace of 2.2 percent in the third quarter, which was lower than the initial 2.8 percent reading, the government said Tuesday.

What's more, mortgage defaults are still setting records, and lenders are regularly rejecting applications from borrowers who don't have good credit or enough money for a down payment.

Many experts warn that hundreds of thousands of foreclosed properties have yet to be put up for sale. Plenty of traditional sellers are also keeping their homes off the market, hoping for a better price.

"When they start thinking they can sell them, we could see a surge in homes for sale," wrote Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

In the meantime, home buyers can take advantage of record-low mortgage rates, deeply discounted prices and federal incentives. Besides the existing tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, homeowners who have lived in their current properties for at least five years can now claim a tax credit of up to $6,500 if they relocate. To qualify, buyers must sign a purchase agreement by April 30.

Analysts expect that the new tax credit deadline means sales will drop during the winter months and recover in the spring.

Without the looming deadline, "buyers have no sense of urgency now," said Gary DeRosa, an agent with ZipRealty Inc. in Seattle.

By ALAN ZIBEL (AP)

November 2009 Home Sales Market Report

Monthly Highlights

• Single-family, detached home sales in the Greater Albuquerque market areas are up 57.18 percent from November 2008.
• The Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Corrales, Placitas, Bernalillo, East Mountains and Valencia County MLS areas all had at least 50 percent increases in single-family, detached home sales compared to the previous year.
• Pending homes for single-family, detached homes increased 20.69 percent from November 2008.
• A new color map showing Rio Rancho/Sandoval County home sales has been added and can be found on page 14.
Read the full November 2009 Market Report

House Flipping Makes a Comeback

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.

Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. The six-bedroom home, built on a three-acre desert plot, has a kitchen with two dishwashers, four ovens, "antibacterial" copper sinks, and a master "spa" bathroom with space for a flat-screen TV visible from the tub.

Flipping Foreclosures

Avraham Azoulay, left, and Donna Valva looked over their list of foreclosed houses outside the Maricopa County Court building during an auction in Phoenix, Dec. 3, 2009.

The minimum bid, as set by a unit of Citigroup Inc., which had a $1.3 million mortgage on the home, was $379,900. After several minutes of bidding among investors and their representatives, some wearing shorts and flip-flops, Mr. Mirmelli won the home for $486,300. A week later, he agreed to sell it for $690,000 to a woman who moved in this month.

During the housing boom, millions of Americans tried to make money by buying and then quickly reselling new houses and condominiums. That kind of flipping stopped several years ago as home sales stalled amid a surge in foreclosures and curtailed lending.

Now, a different breed of flipper is proliferating: one who seeks bargains at foreclosure auctions. Unlike the boom-time flippers, the latest generation needs cold cash, lots of local-market knowledge and strong nerves.

Investors compete mostly with other full-time professionals who monitor foreclosure auctions at county courthouses across the country. The bidders often haven't had a chance to inspect the property or determine whether it's occupied by tenants, who may be hard to evict.

Sometimes "you have half an hour to make a half-million-dollar decision," says Damon Lines, an executive at PostedProperties.com, a Phoenix firm that provides information to foreclosure investors and bids on their behalf. "That's something most people can't or aren't willing to do."

In the states where home prices have fallen the most, many local real-estate markets are dominated by foreclosed property, dragging down the value of neighboring homes. Barclays Capital estimates that banks and mortgage investors have 639,000 foreclosed homes for sale across the U.S., largely concentrated in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada. That's equivalent to more than 10% of expected U.S. home sales this year.

— Charlie Rose

Flippers swoop in at public auctions of foreclosed homes, known as trustee or sheriff sales. In many states, the lender sets the minimum bid, and takes possession of the property only if no one bids more. In the past, the minimum generally was about equal to the mortgage balance due. But in today's market, in which many home values have dropped far below the loan balance, lenders wouldn't attract investors if they set the minimum at that level.

So lenders, or the loan-servicing firms that represent banks and investors, are increasingly likely to set the minimum much lower. Their goal is to tempt others to buy the house and spare banks the headaches and costs that come with taking possession.

Sean O'Tool

By JAMES R. HAGERTY

Foreign Buyers Taking Advantage of Slashed Prices

International investors bought 154,000 homes and condos in the 12-month period ending in May, and are continuing to take advantage of the weak dollar. The U.S. dollar has dropped 9 to 11 percent since June against foreign currencies like the Japanese yen, the European euro and the Canadian dollar. Another attractive feature is that, while the U.S. dollar has weakened significantly, the economy is showing signs of stabilizing along with the housing market. Nearly 46% of international home buyers paid cash for homes purchased, and the median price foreign buyers paid for a home was nearly $80,000 greater than the U.S. national median price. According to msnbc.com buyers from Brazil, Canada, France, and the Netherlands have paid mostly cash for second homes ranging from $6 million to $15 million in condo buildings.

World on the Mend

While housing markets in the world’s leading economies remain distressed, hope is on the horizon. According to globalpropertyguide.com of the 27 countries which have already published their Q3 data, 16 countries have experienced rising prices and falls in only 11 countries. Economies such as the UK, Canada, Germany, Singapore, and South Africa are finally noting positive price changes quarter-on-quarter after being negatively affected during the economic slump. Of this group, the rising prices in the UK, Canada, Germany, and South Africa are the first after suffering declines every quarter since 2008. While some markets’ increases are more modest than others, the over-arching trend is toward recovery. More information on specific housing markets is available at globalpropertyguide.com.

Federal Short Sale Guidance Out

Short sale procedures for loan servicers are standardized in guidelines released under the federal government's Making Home Affordable loan modification initiative for troubled home owners. The guidelines create a path for a short-sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure for eligible borrowers for whom loan modification isn't a viable option. The guidelines provide $1,500 in federal funds to help borrowers relocate, $1,000 to help servicers offset their processing costs, and up to $1,000 to investors to secure release of subordinate liens. For each $3 an investor pays to secure the release of a lien, the investor receives $1 in assistance. The guidelines prohibit a reduction in agreed-upon commissions (if they're not more than 6 percent) and take effect April 5, 2010, but can be implemented by servicers at any time. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to follow this release with their own rules based on these guidelines.

Read NAR summary.

Read the entire guidelines.

Commercial Real Estate Mired in Quicksand despite Signs of Economic Recovery

The third quarter of 2009 brought signs of relief to a U.S. economy fighting to emerge from what has been coined the Great Recession. Most measures of economic activity moved in upward trends—gross domestic product turned positive after four quarters of decline; industrial production gained; stock market indices have been surging.

However, commercial real estate did not find its footing in the constantly shifting terrain of weak fundamentals and timid transaction activity. Demand for commercial properties continued on a downward path, adding pressure on prices and rents. Moreover, credit conditions continued to tighten as banks moved to strengthen their balance sheets. As a result, vacancy rates have been rising and the volume of distressed properties has grown. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the pace of decline in fundamentals is slowing, and sales transactions are posting positive growth.

NAR FORECAST: Commercial real estate is expected to see negative absorption, higher vacancies and declining rents. Commercial financing still poses the main challenge stabilization. While CMBS markets have been revived, volume is insufficient to address maturing debt.

For the 4^th Quarter 2009 report, please visit: http://www.realtor.org/research/research/commercialhome

9 Consecutive Gains for Home Sales

Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future.”

By Region

• Pending sales in the Northeast surged 19.9 percent to 100.2 in October and is 44.2 percent above a year ago.
• In the Midwest, the index rose 11.6 percent to 109.6 and is 36.6 percent higher than October 2008.
• Sales in the South increased 5.4 percent to an index of 115.4, which is 31.6 percent above a year ago.
• In the West, the index fell 11.2 percent to 127.7 but is 21.9 percent above October 2008.
  

Not Out of the Woods Yet
Yun cautioned that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December until early spring when we get another surge, but the weak job market remains a major concern and could slow the recovery process.

“Still, as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” Yun said.
Source: NAR