Thursday, April 29, 2010

New Home Sales Bounce Almost 27% Higher in March 2010

RISMEDIA, April 28, 2010—(MCT)—Sales of new homes broke out of a four-month winter slump with a bang in March 2010, soaring 26.9% over February, the government recently said, evidence that federal tax incentives for buyers due to expire next week are giving the housing market a boost.
The March figures were meager by historical standards, bouncing off an all-time low in February, and analysts said job creation was paramount for the momentum to sustain itself.
“It shows that the tax credit still has some punch, and we will probably see some better sales numbers for April,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s But “if we don’t get more jobs, the housing market is going nowhere.”
The news came after a report showed that sales of previously owned homes rose 6.8% in March. Although new-home sales make up a much smaller share of home-buying activity, economists are watching the data carefully as an indicator of whether the beleaguered construction industry will begin to add jobs in substantial numbers.
Home builders’ stocks climbed, with the Standard & Poor’s index of 12 major builders increasing nearly 11%.
Last year, housing was a drag on economic growth, but that could turn this year, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders. Housing should contribute positively to the nation’s first-quarter growth when the government’s report on gross domestic product is released, he said.
New-home sales in March jumped the most in markets hit by February’s winter storms. They rose 43.5% in the South, 35.7% in the Northeast, 5.7% in the West and 4.3% in the Midwest.
The data are estimates based on surveys and are reported as an annual sales pace adjusted to take seasonal variations into account. The March sales pace hit an annual rate of 411,000 homes.
February’s revised annual rate of 324,000 was the lowest since the government began tracking such statistics in 1963. That made it easy for March figures to show a surge.
Zandi estimated that, stripping out the effects of February’s inclement weather and the influence of the tax credit, last month’s sales pace was closer to 350,000.
“The one thing to keep in mind is that these are still really horrible numbers,” said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist for the consultancy IHS Global Insight. “The only reason they look good is because February’s were the worst numbers ever.”
Sales are likely to fall once the tax credit expires but will recover later this year if the economy picks up steam, he said.
Newport was encouraged that about a third of homes bought in March had not begun construction, which suggests the shoppers, who were unlikely to close their sales in time to qualify for the government’s tax credit, were tempted by factors such as cheap prices and low interest rates.
Richard Voith, a real estate expert at the consulting firm Econsult Corp. in Philadelphia, predicted that the momentum would continue. “It will be a decent summer,” he said.
Inventory declined to levels not seen since March 1971, with the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of last month standing at 228,000. That represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $214,000.
Builders have suffered significantly from the recession, the credit crunch and competition from bank-owned properties. As a result, they have changed their business models, constructing smaller, cheaper dwellings to attract first-time buyers and putting up fewer houses that don’t have buyers lined up in advance.
Despite slumping sales this year, builders have begun construction on homes at a faster rate than last year, with many counting on a boost from the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time purchasers and $6,500 for some current homeowners.
“New homes are selling, so builders were smart,” Newport said. “They are not going to slow down the pace.”
(c) 2010, Tribune Co.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Pending Listing Review

This data article provides information about Pending listings in the Southwest Multiple Listing Service. A detailed look of Pending listings from January 1, 2009 to present will identify what percentage of listings actually go to closing, how long the typical listing stays under contract and what parts of the Greater Albuquerque Market Areas see the most pending activity. 

The Southwest MLS definition of a Pending listing is when, “A purchase agreement has been accepted by the buyer and seller to execute the sale of real property.“ A Pending listing is also referred to as being “under contract”.

Data use for this article: Residential, single-family detached listings in the SWMLS coverage areas that were reported as Pending from January 1, 2009 through April 8, 2010.

Chart 1: Pending home sales reported in 2009

Summary and analysis of Chart 1
Chart 1 shows that of 87.78% of all Pending listings in 2009 actually went to closing. The remaining 12.22% of the listings were placed back on the market, cancelled or were assigned different status in the MLS.

Chart 2: Pending listings currently in the MLS database as of April 8, 2010.

Summary and analysis of Chart 2
Chart 2 provides a summary of existing Pending listings as of April 8, 2010 by county and city. For county, the data shows that listings in Santa Fe and Torrance counties take a little longer to go to closing than counties in the ABQ Metro area. Overall, it takes an average of 73 days for a Pending listing to go to closing. Pending listings for Albuquerque appear to be closing faster than the overall average by 8 days.

Source: Southwest MLS, Inc. Information deemed reliable not guaranteed. 

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Foreclosure Myths

The traditional news media, as well as firms throughout the Internet, have created an environment in which foreclosure myths are rampant. Sometimes it seems like that's all you hear about whenever there is a discussion about real estate.
If you are a real estate professional, a foreclosure investor, or just a homeowner worried about the possibility of foreclosure, it's worth a few moments to review some of the more common misconceptions out there these days surrounding the foreclosure process.
First, if you miss a few payments the bank cannot simply make you move. Each state varies as to its procedures, of course, but in every case there is a legal and most often time-consuming process that the lender must go through before someone will be required to move out of their home.
Next, and this is a really important one, don't think that your obligations end with a foreclosure proceeding. Unless you had enough equity in the house to pay off all the mortgage holders, all the taxes and any contractor or other liens, you are likely still liable. In addition, the amount your home sold for, if less than what you owe, is considered taxable income to you (check with your accountant on this one). Any other possessions you still have are at risk.
Bankruptcy is, obviously, a serious matter. In some states, it doesn't even do that much to slow down the foreclosure process. In every case, your credit will be ruined for a long time, at least seven years.
Being in the process of foreclosure does not automatically mean that you cannot get other financing. It certainly won't be easy, but it is possible, especially if you have equity left in your house and can prove it with a good appraisal.
After foreclosure, don't necessarily give up on home ownership. You will need a solid down payment and be able to prove a stable source of income. Your rate may be higher. However, there are lenders that will look at your situation after as little as two years. Also, the large number of foreclosures has created many new real estate investors. Some may be willing to let you "rent-to-own" or to hold your mortgage privately.
After being sold at a foreclosure auction, you may still not have lost your last chance to keep your house. This varies by state, but in some cases there is a grace period a right of redemption -- for you to try to arrange new financing, even after the last gavel at the auction.
There are times when you are better off letting the house go. For example, so many homeowners today are "under water" on their mortgages, in some cases substantially. This means that falling home prices, together with lax down payment requirements, have created a situation where your home is worth less than what you owe on it.
While no one will try to tell you that foreclosure is just fine, the truth is that many foreclosures are the result of reasons that, while unfortunate, are completely explicable. Consider divorce, death and sudden medical bills, just to name a few examples.
Remember: Your bank does not want your house. These days, they almost always lose money, and valuable time, on foreclosures. They want to see you stay in it if possible.
There are many myths about home foreclosures. If you are an interested party, it is always advisable to look into the applicable laws of your area.
By: Julie Thompson

2010 1st Quarter Sales Report

1st QTR 2009 & 2010 RECAP for the Greater Albuquerque Area 

PDF File Read the full 2010 1st Quarter Sales Report 

Monday, April 19, 2010


>1201 Walter SE 15-20k in finish work $90K @5% 1100sf 2BR/1BA 

>7605 Cutler NE 15-20K in finish work $160k @5% 2200sf 3BR/2BA/1CG 

>8602 Candelaria NE move in condition $160k @7% 1700sf 3BR/2BA/1CG 

>424 General Patch NE move in condition $150K @8.5% 2250sf 4BR/3BA 

No closing costs, 4 year balloon, no prepay penalty.

Monday, April 12, 2010

March 2010 Market Report

Monthly Highlights

• March saw signficant increases in single-family detached home sales, up 36.34 percent from March 2009 and up 66.84 percent from the previous month.

• There were 1,077 Pending sales for single-family detached homes in March 2010, rising 43.98 percent from the previous year and up 38.25 percent from the previous month. This is the highest
number of Pending sales for single-family homes since June 2007. 

PDF File Read the full March 2010 Market Report 

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

New Mexico February Housing Trend Stats

The number of sales is higher for February 2010 from both January 2010 and February 2009, however the median price has dropped to $170,000...  Read reports here >

Military Have Extra Year to Get Home Tax Credit

The government has announced that current military personnel, Foreign Service and Intelligence community members have one more year to get in on the tax credit for first time buyers.
Click here for details.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Absorption Rates for Greater Albuquerque market areas

This article utilizes Absorption Rate, a key market indicator found in the Monthly Market Reports, to highlight existing single-family housing conditions in the Greater Albuquerque market areas. The data used for this Number Crunch article will be for single family, detached homes that are for sale now and for listings that were reported sold in the last year.

Definition of Terms:
Absorption Rate (AR) – The absorption rate measures how long it will take to exhaust the current housing inventory. An average market is traditionally a six-month supply. The rate is refered to as MSI, Monthly Supply of Inventory.

How SWMLS calculates the Absorption rate:
The absorption rate calculation is the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales average. An example explaining how January’s 7.99 AR was calculated follows.

We’ll start with the Active listings. There were 4,766 Active detached listings for January. This number was obtained from a Feburary 5th data pull. Active listing counts for monthly reports are typically obtained on the 5th day of the following month.

Now for the monthly sales average. In order to determine this average, we need to look at 12 months worth of monthly homes sales, that's 12 sales values divided by 12. The January 2010 sales average was 596.17. Another way of saying it is from January 2009 to January 2010 an average of 596.17 homes sold each month in the Greater ABQ Market. The monthly sales average has been between 573 and 600 for the last twelve months.

The calculation for the January absorption rate is going to be 4,766 / 596.17. It will take 7.99 months to exhaust the current supply of homes for sale.

The absorption rate for detached homes, since May 2008, has stayed between 7.2 and 9.2. A traditional market is considered to have a 6.0 absorption rate.

Here is a breakdown of all Active listings for sale SWMLS Areas and they're corresponding Absorption Rates. (as of February 22, 2010)

MLS Areas for Bernailillo County and Corrales

* N/A for Area 112 due to no sales.
**For the Bernalillo County areas the highest AR is in Area 80. This area has averaged around 10 sales a month in the last year (Average MLS area sales are 15) and has an inventory of 180 homes (Average MLS area Active listings is 126).

MLS Areas for Sandoval County

MLS Areas for East Mountains and Estancia Basin

*Areas 231 and 271 show a skewed number, with values over 100 for the months supply of inventory. These values are high due to low sales and a small Active inventory.

MLS Areas for Valencia County

*N/A for Area 690 due to no sales.

Vacant Land for sale in Greater Albuquerque

All SWMLS Areas 

Active land listings as of March 16, 2010: 5,481
Average lot size of all active Land listings: 28.97 Acres
Vacant land listings under contract as of March 16, 2010: 63
# of vacant land Listings reported sold in last 30 days: 28
# of vacant land Listings reported sold in last 90 days: 111
Median Sale Price of Vacant Land listing sold in last 90 days: $34,000
Average Sale Price of Vacant Land listing sold in last 90 days: $49,957

Where vacant land properties are listed for sale.


The designated SWMLS Areas represent the different cities, towns, and counties in the Greater Albuquerque market. 
Although the SWMLS monthly market reports do not include vacant land data, these types of listings are present in the Southwest MLS, making up roughly 46% of the MLS active inventory. Residential properties make up 49%. Most of the vacant land properties can be found in Rio Rancho, Valencia County and the Zuzax/Tijeras areas.
Source: Southwest MLS, Inc. Information deemed reliable not guaranteed.